It's broken again! What is the impact of the US stock market slump on Chinese assets?
楚一帆
发表于 2023-10-4 15:39:47
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Let's see what's going on.
Us stock market plunges
U.S. stocks continued to slide in early trading Tuesday, with the Dow plunging 400 points and the Nasdaq plunging nearly 2%.
European stock markets also tumbled.
What's behind the big drop?
First, interest rate hike expectations.
Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic said the central bank should keep interest rates higher for an "extended period" to bring inflation back down to its 2 percent target. "There is no rush to raise rates again, but there is also no rush to cut rates and send premature signals of policy easing," Bostick said at an event in Atlanta on Tuesday.
"If we cut too early or send a signal that we're not solving the problem, we're not going to get to 2 percent, and we have to get to 2 percent," he said. This is non-negotiable. So, I hope we can stick to it. And I think that's going to be appropriate for a long period of time."
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said rising oil prices could hinder progress in bringing down inflation and that the Fed may have to raise rates again this year and then keep them high for some time.
In a speech in Cleveland, Mester said that while price increases have slowed sharply since 2022, "inflation is still too high." What's more, rising oil prices could hinder further progress in reducing inflation, she said. With families having to fill up their cars or trucks once or twice a week, higher gas prices could start to make consumers think inflation will rise again.
"If so, higher inflation could become embedded in people's perceptions of the economy and affect their behavior in ways that are inconsistent with price stability," she continued.
However, Mester also said the final decision would depend on how the economy develops, citing factors such as a possible prolonged strike by members of the United Auto Workers union and a possible government shutdown as risks to the outlook for inflation and economic growth.
A growing number of Wall Street strategists are sounding the alarm about the impact of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve on U.S. stocks. Goldman Sachs joined Morgan Stanley and jpmorgan Chase in warning that high interest rates could trigger further falls in equity markets.
Goldman strategists Andrea Ferrario and Christian Mueller-Glissmann noted in a report that the divergence between the S&P 500 and the real 10-year Treasury rate is close to its largest in 20 years (except 2020), and that such a divergence means that, The declining returns on holding riskier equities compared with safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries "could further limit the ability of equity markets to absorb further rises in interest rates".
Second, US Treasury yields have soared.
The 10-year Treasury yield last traded at 4.787%, a 16-year high. Investors have been fretting recently about the possibility of a prolonged period of rate hikes, fearing that tighter monetary policy could tip the economy into recession. That has pushed Treasury yields to levels not seen in more than a decade.
The 10-year Treasury yield is an anchor to the market's long-term borrowing costs and the basis for pricing U.S. mortgages and other loans; It is also commonly referred to as the "risk-free yield," and the direction of the risk-free yield will force investors to reassess the value of risky assets such as stocks.
Generally speaking, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield means that the financing costs of the global financial market will increase, which will tighten market liquidity, drive the bond market interest rates of other major economies in the world to form a synchronous upward "follow effect", and at the same time, the valuation of risk assets such as stocks will form downward pressure. In addition, a rise in 10-year Treasury yields typically leads to a return of capital to the US and a stronger dollar, which in turn puts pressure on non-US currencies.
Third, the economic data has exploded again.
In addition, the JOLTs data of the United States in August "unexpectedly broke the table"! Job openings were 9.61 million versus 8.8 million expected versus 8.827 million previously.
Treasury yields surged further after the release of the August job openings survey, a sign that the job market remains tight, and stocks fell to session lows. The survey showed 9.6 million job openings this month. At the same time, economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 8.8 million jobs.
That leaves the probability of the Fed raising rates for the rest of 2023 still on the table, with the probability of another rate hike in November rising to about 38% after the job openings data, up from 28% previously, as a strong labor market will keep consumer spending strong, potentially leading to a resurgence of inflation and more rate hikes.
What is the impact on Chinese assets?
The dollar index climbed to a 10-month high, while the renminbi fell to 7.32. The dollar's strength was driven by a surge in Treasury yields. Investors increasingly believe the Fed is likely to keep rates higher for longer than the typical business cycle.
A50 down.
China concept shares fell sharply.
Blessing, A shares.
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only, this article does not represent the position of CandyLake.com, and does not constitute advice, please treat with caution.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only, this article does not represent the position of CandyLake.com, and does not constitute advice, please treat with caution.
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