On Monday, US stocks rose across the board, and the yield of benchmark 10-year US treasury bond bonds hit a low of 3.966% in the session, driving a strong rebound in technology stocks! As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.58% to 37683.01 points, the Nasdaq rose 2.20% to 14843.77 points, and the S&P 500 rose 1.41% to 4763.54 points. The Nasdaq 100 index, mainly composed of technology stocks, surged 2.11% to close at 16649.87 points.
Popular technology stocks generally rose, with Apple up 2.42%, Microsoft up 1.89%, Amazon up 2.66%, META up 1.9%, Google A up 2.29%, and Tesla up 1.25%. Nvidia surged 6.4%, with a stock price exceeding $522, setting a new historical high and a total market value of approximately $1.29 trillion. Nvidia announced the launch of three new graphics cards for consumers during a speech at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
Recently, funds have been continuously borrowing low rate ETF varieties to layout as technology leaders in the US stock market. On the previous trading day, the Nasdaq 100ETF (159659) received a net inflow of approximately 1.28 million yuan, representing a net inflow of 5.12 million yuan for three consecutive days. According to Wind data statistics, among the ETF products that also track the NASDAQ 100 index, the NASDAQ 100 ETF (159659) is one of the products with the lowest management fee, which is conducive to investors laying out global technology leaders at a lower cost.
On the news front, the latest inflation survey released by the New York Federal Reserve in December shows that the median one-year inflation expectation has dropped from 3.4% previously to 3%, the lowest level since January 2021. At the same time, the three-year period decreased from 3% to 2.6%, and the five-year period decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%.
The yield of US treasury bond bonds fell, and the benchmark 10-year US bond fell to 4%. The CMEFedwatch tool shows that the market expects interest rate cuts to occur as early as March of this year, with a probability of about 70%. The previous day, this probability was 62%, and there are six potential interest rate cuts within the year.
Source: Everbright Securities
This Thursday, the United States will release the December Consumer Price Index (CPI). The institution expects the overall inflation rate to rise from 3.1% in November to 3.3%, but the core inflation rate (excluding volatile items such as food and energy) will decrease from the previous 4% to 3.8%.
CITIC Securities pointed out that the current three-month average of new non-farm employment is 165000 people, which is still some distance from the threshold of the deterioration of the US job market (100000 people). The current inflation pressure in the United States is relatively controllable. Although the salary growth rate in December has increased compared to the previous month, the number of job vacancies is further declining, and the gap between the salary growth rate of job hoppers and those who stay is gradually narrowing. It is expected that the salary growth rate will continue to move towards a level more consistent with the 2% price inflation in the future. The current cycle of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has ended, and the timing of the rate cut may be around the middle of this year. In the short term, the 10-year US Treasury bond rate may experience volatility due to the persistence of economic resilience and uncertainty in the timing of the rate cut.
At the configuration level, CICC believes that due to the support of the fundamentals of the US stock market, although fluctuations may be inevitable, the overall situation is not pessimistic. Due to the low growth pressure in the United States, the release of profit downgrade pressure by Nasdaq one year ahead of schedule in 2022, and the loose hedging by the Federal Reserve, we are not worried about the deep adjustment pressure on the US stock market. Although some twists and turns may be the "cost" of switching from denominator to numerator logic, they can be quickly fixed. In terms of style, considering the macro environment of 2024 (loose currency, tight fiscal) and the sustained support of the AI industry, growth may continue to lead, and the value sector may gradually recover after interest rate cuts generate demand for real estate and investment.
"Global Technology Leader Wind Vane" - NASDAQ 100ETF (159659)
As one of the representative market indexes in the US market, the NASDAQ index is also called the "US tech index". The NASDAQ 100 index is based on the NASDAQ index and refined with essence. It selects 100 non-financial companies as constituent stocks, and calculates the index according to the corresponding index compilation rules on the basis of market capitalization weighting, reflecting the overall market of NASDAQ or the trend of US high-tech.
The NASDAQ 100 ETF (159659) closely tracks the NASDAQ 100 index, efficiently lays out high-quality overseas technology stocks, and has over-the-counter linked funds (Class A: 019547, Class C: 019548) for off exchange investors to choose from.