Recently, the market has been highly concerned about the Bitcoin market. On November 26th, after failing to break through the $100000 mark, the price of Bitcoin turned downwards and fell below $93000 for the day before slightly narrowing the decline. As of 17:30 Beijing time on the 26th, the price of Bitcoin was $93645.77.
On November 26th, Yu Jianing, co chairman of the Blockchain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association and honorary chairman of the Hong Kong Blockchain Association, stated on the "Market Boiling Point" program of 21 Finance that the $100000 mark is a psychological barrier. From the analysis of the factors contributing to this round of rise, $100000 will not be a resistance point, but the competition around this mark may continue for some time.
As for whether there will be a pullback after breaking through $100000, I personally think it is highly probable. Currently, the price is rising too fast, and historically, there have been frequent cases of Bitcoin experiencing a 20% pullback in a single day. On the other hand, rapid price increases actually have no benefits for the asset itself, "said Yu Jianing.
Yu Jianing stated that the recent rise in the Bitcoin market is indeed influenced by Trump's continued support for Bitcoin during the campaign, coupled with the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission officially approved Bitcoin ETFs provided by fund companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity earlier this year. With multiple favorable factors, a large amount of institutional funds from around the world have flooded in. In addition, the market's expectation that the United States may include Bitcoin in its national reserves has also led many countries, sovereign funds, and central banks to remain on the sidelines.
Yu Jianing believes that the bull bear cycle of Bitcoin in this round is significantly different from the past. Normally, Bitcoin's bull market tends to occur after a halving, but this round of trading actually started in September 2023. At that time, there were rumors circulating in the market that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved, which led many people to believe that an opportunity had arrived and began to lay out ahead of time. From September 2023 to March 2024, the price of Bitcoin reached its peak, and then from March to August of this year, the market entered a relatively sluggish period of decline that lasted for approximately 6 to 7 months. It was not until August of this year, with the emergence of the so-called 'Trump deal', that the market truly bottomed out and rebounded.
What are the risks to be aware of when paying attention to Bitcoin? Regarding this, Yu Jianing believes that Bitcoin is a high-risk product. For investors who pursue short-term trading, the risk of losses increases due to the high volatility of Bitcoin prices. Due to the high volatility of Bitcoin itself, it is not very rational for investors to use contract leveraged products for trading. He believes that using high leverage to trade digital assets is actually equivalent to gambling, and investors should be cautious about the relationship between risk and return.
He believes that in the current policy environment, ordinary investors should focus on learning, understanding, and observing, and cautiously participate in Bitcoin investment. If participating, one should choose compliant products and regulated pathways. There are many fraudulent activities in the market that use Bitcoin investment as a cover and high returns as bait. Investors should be alert to these risks.