Benefiting from favorable market conditions, Hong Kong auto stocks continue to rebound. As of press time, Xiaopeng Auto-W (09868. HK), Zero Run Automotive (09863), Geely Automobile (00175. HK), and BYD Co., Ltd. (01211. HK) have risen by 5.76%, 5.16%, 5.06%, and 4.97% respectively.
Note: Performance of automotive stocks
In terms of news, there has been good news in the new energy vehicle industry recently, with companies such as Ideal Auto releasing their sales data for October. NIO delivered 20976 vehicles in October, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%; Ideal Auto delivered 51443 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%; Xiaopeng Motors delivered 23917 intelligent electric vehicles, setting a new record for monthly delivery volume, with a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month on month increase of 12%.
It is worth noting that the September delivery data released by new energy vehicle companies also shows a positive growth trend. With the introduction of scrap subsidies and replacement policies by local governments, many enterprises have achieved year-on-year and month on month growth, indicating that September is not the off-season for sales. The monthly delivery volumes of Ideal Automobile, Zero Run Automobile, and Xiaopeng Motors have all reached new highs. NIO has delivered over 20000 vehicles for five consecutive months, while Xiaomi's monthly sales have exceeded 10000 vehicles for four consecutive months.
In addition, the market is paying more attention to the anti subsidy case for electric vehicles. On October 25th, after a video conference between Minister Wang Wentao and European Commission Executive Vice President and Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis, the China Europe technical team immediately launched a new stage of negotiations on the price commitment of the EU's anti subsidy case against China's electric vehicles. After intensive communication, the European side stated that they will continue to negotiate with China on the specific content of the plan in the future. The Chinese side welcomes this and hopes that the next round of negotiations can follow the principles of "pragmatism and balance" to reach a mutually acceptable solution.
Policy benefits promote consumption upgrading in the automotive industry
In addition to the above benefits, the Central Committee of Finance and Economics recently pointed out that it is necessary to promote the updating and technological transformation of various production and service equipment, encourage traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances to trade in, and promote the trade in of durable consumer goods. This policy is expected to drive the growth of consumer upgrading demand in the automotive industry, which is beneficial for the development of the industry.
Xinda Securities pointed out that before the exit of the old for new policy in this round, coupled with the peak season of automobile consumption at the end of the year, the sales growth rate is expected to further increase, bringing excess returns to the sector. Meanwhile, as the end of the year approaches, the market may anticipate the policy expectations for 2025 ahead of schedule. It is expected that if the old for new policy is continued or other new policies are introduced, it will provide better support for automobile consumption in 2025, and the excess return market is expected to continue. Without relevant stimulus policies, car sales may come under pressure in early 2025.