环球下周看点:非农报告重磅来袭 鲍威尔发表讲话
Rudy64077
发表于 2024-9-29 10:50:26
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从历史来看,9月通常是美股市场表现疲软的一个月,但在本月还剩一个交易日的情况下,标普500指数本月累计上涨1.59%,以科技股为主的纳指涨2.29%。道指涨1.80%,有望创下自2012年以来最好的9月表现。
最新数据显示,美国通胀进一步放缓,8月个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数同比上涨2.2%,剔除食品和能源等波动较大因素的核心PCE价格指数同比上涨2.7%。作为美联储偏爱的通胀指标,PCE数据已越来越接近决策者2%的目标。
随着通胀持续降温,美联储官员如今更关注就业市场的状况。
素有“小非农”之称的美国ADP就业将于下周三公布,而更为重磅的美国9月非农就业数据定于下周五出炉。
如果就业市场弱于预期,美联储可能会加快降息步伐。目前市场预计,美联储11月降息50个基点的可能性略高于降息25个基点。
美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间下周二凌晨1点在全美商业经济协会发表讲话,市场参与者将密切关注,以获得更多关于未来货币政策动向的线索。
中概股的表现也是下周一大看点。得益于中国本周连续推出超预期的利好政策,中概股迎来高光时刻,纳斯达克中国金龙本周大涨约24%。
四季度即将到来之际,美股Q3财报季已基本结束,下周值得关注的财报有运动服饰巨头耐克,该公司定于美东时间周二盘后公布三季度业绩。
地缘政治对资本市场的影响从来不容忽略,中东局势持续升级,以色列本周袭击黎巴嫩,致使包括真主党领导人纳斯鲁拉在内的多名真主党高层成员身亡。若局势进一步失控,料将影响国际油价和金价。
下周海外重要经济事件概览(北京时间):
周一(9月30日):美国9月芝加哥PMI、美国9月达拉斯联储商业活动指数、德国9月CPI数据、英国第二季度GDP年率终值
周二(10月1日):美联储主席鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会发表讲话、日本央行公布9月货币政策会议审议委员意见、美国9月ISM制造业PMI、法国/德国/欧元区9月制造业PMI终值、英国9月制造业PMI、欧元区9月CPI数据
周三(10月2日):欧元区8月失业率、美国9月ADP就业人数、欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国部长级监督委员会举行会议
周四(10月3日):美国9月标普全球服务业PMI终值、美国9月ISM非制造业PMI、法国/德国/欧元区9月服务业/综合PMI终值、英国9月服务业/综合PMI
周五(10月4日):美国9月季调后非农就业人口、美国9月失业率、美国9月全球供应链压力指数
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only, this article does not represent the position of CandyLake.com, and does not constitute advice, please treat with caution.
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