The news that Tesla's Chinese version of FSD is expected to be launched is stimulating the capital market, and the stock prices of related sectors and companies have shown varying degrees of increase.
Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrived in Beijing. The industry speculated that Musk's guild would discuss the launch of the Chinese version of the FSD (Full Self Driving) system and seek approval. Previously, on April 20th, Musk responded to questions from netizens on social media, stating that Tesla FSD may soon enter China.
Compared with FSD 11, FSD v12 innovatively adopts end-to-end neural network technology, which can better understand and handle complex driving environments, reduce driver intervention, improve the accuracy and automation learning ability of autonomous driving. The innovation of end-to-end technology has revolutionized the industry's autonomous driving technology and also raised new procurement demands for upstream component supply chains.
In the field of domain controllers, multiple supply chain enterprises such as Desai Xiwei, Huayang Group, and Zhongke Chuangda have established businesses such as intelligent cockpit domain controllers and integrated driving domain controllers for parking and transportation. In particular, the integrated intelligent driving domain controller for driving and parking is more centralized and integrated than the traditional distributed electronic and electrical architecture. It integrates various sensors, computing units, communication units, etc. required for autonomous driving into one controller to achieve the cost reduction and efficiency increase commonly needed by car companies. According to the research report of Pacific Securities, the cost of the integrated parking controller is 9000 yuan, accounting for 18% of the total vehicle cost, when disassembled with the value of intelligent vehicles at a price of 300000 yuan. Affected by the overall market rise and news from Tesla, the three domain controller companies mentioned above all saw intraday gains of over 5% on April 29th.
In addition, in order to achieve end-to-end technological effects, a wire controlled chassis with high response speed has become a hot topic in the supply chain. Due to the use of electrical signal control, the wire controlled chassis has a faster response speed and a higher price compared to traditional mechanical systems. Similarly, with a price of 300000 yuan for intelligent car decomposition, the cost of a wire controlled chassis is about 18000 yuan, accounting for 36% of the total vehicle cost. On April 29th, listed companies such as Bertelli and Jingwei Hengrun, which are involved in businesses such as wire controlled braking or wire controlled steering, rose nearly 6% in intraday trading.
In addition, according to market news, Tesla will use the advanced assisted driving map provided by Baidu Maps for the Chinese version of FSD. On April 29th, Baidu saw a sharp rise in the afternoon, rising by over 6% at one point. On the same day, the autonomous driving sector rose nearly 3%.
It is worth mentioning that Pacific Securities proposed in its research report that the BOM cost of L2+and L3 intelligent driving is expected to decrease by 50% in 2024/2025. Xiaopeng Automobile Chairman He Xiaopeng has stated that the cost of Xiaopeng's autonomous driving Bom will decrease by half in 2024. DJI Car believes that the total cost (software+hardware) of the L2+intelligent driving system accounts for 3% to 5% of the total vehicle price, which is reasonable. In the future, the reasonable cost range for the L2+intelligent driving system is between 5000 yuan and 15000 yuan.
From the current technological changes, the number of sensors such as LiDAR, cameras, and millimeter wave radar is decreasing. In the future, car companies are expected to shift from relying on multiple LiDARs to "pure visual perception+1 LiDAR supervision", and from relying on high cost high-precision maps to relying on low marginal cost perception models.
In addition to the upstream supply side, affected by the news, the stock prices of intelligent vehicle listed companies, including Celes, Xiaopeng Motors, Ideal Motors, and NIO Motors, have risen to varying degrees today. The iterative upgrade of Tesla's FSD system guides the industry to pay attention to the "de graphing" of urban NOA mass production solutions. At present, the intelligent vehicle manufacturers mentioned above are all moving towards this goal, successively pushing high-speed NOA to their respective users. Ideal previously stated that the city NOA (no map) internal test will be launched in June 2023, and cities that do not rely on high-precision maps will have their NOA implemented in 100 cities by the end of 2023. In May 2023, with the assembly of Huawei ADS2.0, Wenjie achieved a no map city NOA. In February 2024, Xiaopeng launched the Unlimited XNGP, closely following Huawei to achieve a city wide no map NOA.